Saudi-UAE alliance collapsed in Yemen, again

The Saudi-Emirati differences in Yemen float to surface again, warning this time from complex scenario, so what is the possibility for a military clash between the two parties?

From the west coast of Yemen to the east of the country, which has been shattered by the coalition war for 6 years, the pace of events is accelerating, and their intensity escalates between the proxy local conflict parties.

These developments even it emerged as local fighting over power, coalition is the one who running the things, or the two allies tried to cover the conflict with Turkish-Qatari cap, but the details of which reveal strong struggles over power between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia, whose ambassador to Yemen, Muhammad Al Jaber, is focusing now cutting of UAE wings politically, under the name of “implementing Riyadh Agreement” pushed its first man in Yemen, Ali Mohsen, to escalate in the southwestern countryside of Taiz province, and the goal was to deny Sultan al-Barakani, who is backed by UAE, from finding a military outpost for Abu Dhabi in this strategic region, that would enable him to press for his transfer to an advanced position in power, specifically by transferring Hadi’s powers to him.

Al-Barkani was relying a lot on Saudi Arabia to entrust Hadi’s duties to him after his departure to United States, so he left Cairo and returned to Riyadh hours before Hadi’s departure, but Saudi Arabia, which wants to keep power in Al-Jaber’s hand, shocked Al-Barkani by sending him a memorandum, asking him not to interfere with the moves of forming the new government that Al-Jaber oversees on it, as Cairo-based journalist, Muhammad Al-Khamri, said. At that time, Al-Barkani hold a meeting with Hani bin Braik, the transitional vice-president, in announcement of alliance between the two parties, observers counted it a step backed by UAE that prepare for military wing establishment for al-Barakani similar to the security belt to twist the arm of Saudi Arabia, that sees Al-Barkani, another face of UAE in Yemen.

The Saudi ambassador wants from Mohsen’s control, who is also eager to stay in power, to pressure on UAE in implementing the military part of Riyadh agreement, especially getting rid of UAE factions from Aden, he is now waving by Islah party as a stick in the face of UAE followers, the weakest in Aden or the western coast.

Saudi Arabia may be satisfied with the concentration of Islah in the southwestern countryside of Taiz, as a dagger in the waist of UAE factions, and it may push them  advancing towards Aden, where the road will pave for them to Lahj, by escalating tension between STC and the pro-Hadi factions, which have become chaotic in Al Anad at the most important entrance to the north of Aden. moreover, it may push the party factions to penetrate to the West Coast although the presence of Mohsen’s forces in Al-Hujariah itself gave Riyadh a great pressure card on  UAE, especially in light of the continuing battles in Abyan and transfer it during the past hours to the city of Zinjibar, the administrative center of the province located at the eastern gate of Aden, but indicators confirm that Riyadh’s progress towards a further extent.

In Socotra, local sources confirm that pro-Saudi armed men and close to the commander of its forces detained the Emirati delegate, Khalfan al-Kaabi, for hours before he was released, and by doing this it wanted to deliver a message to UAE that are trying to keep the strategic island on the eastern coast of Yemen and refuse to go into the affairs of the island and strengthening their grip. The detention process coincided, according to diplomatic sources, with a letter from the head of the Emirati intelligence service, Tahnoun bin Zayed, to Hadi’s prime minister  asking him to take Socotra down from any settlements between STC and Hadi.

On the other hand, UAE appears to be more aware for its major ally plots, and it was prominent from its reactions and statements, that it was trying to deliver a message to Saudi Arabia that it knew its plans in advance  so Abu Dhabi hastened to shorten the time with a similar field escalation represented by preventing the Saudi committee from leaving Aden by pushing STC to close the headquarters of Saudi base in Al-Buraiqeh, and waving by the latest American aircraft to stop any progress towards its strongholds, especially on the western coast, and the most important thing is to wave through its newspapers to abort Riyadh agreement and to warn that the recent advance of Yemen’s Brotherhood (Islah party) in the countryside of Taiz will lead to mix the papers and obstructing the announcement of new government formation.

Despite the amplification of the Saudi and Emirati media, in talking about a Turkish-Qatari intervention in Yemen, there are no concrete indications yet, which confirms that the two allies are trying to escape from the reality of the military clash by dropping the curtain of Turkish-Qatari influence, as the declaration of war on Yemen under the pretext of “Iranian influence. However, the facts on the ground indicate that just as Saudi Arabia and UAE declared their war on Yemen in 2015, with the aim of taking it apart socially, regionally, and religiously, are trying now to undermine his capabilities. But the disparity of shares and the attempt by Saudi Arabia to acquire the largest share was the factor of the conflict between them, its history extends to the first moments of war, it may not end soon and may rise to a direct military clash.